Updated: In times of deepening crises, mere waiting and watching won't be enough

Multiple crises have started gripping the world's largest democracy in recent days. There are tell-tale signs of a serious economic crisis unfolding with demand for goods and services declining, Gross Domestic Product plummeting to a six-year low at 5 per cent from 5.8 per cent, manufacturing witnessing a free-fall to 0.6 per cent from 12.6 per cent, finance, real estate down to 5.9 per cent from 6.5, construction slowed down to 5.7 per cent, farm sector growth subdued to a mere 2 per cent. Lakhs in the emerging economy of a 1.5-billion population are losing jobs amid a deep crisis that is unlikely to fizzle out soon with the main opposition Indian National Congress blaming the Narendra Modi-led Bharatiya Janata Party government for committing what it called a 'cold murder' (cold-blooded murder) of the economy. In an unprecedented move, the Modi government is withdrawing from the Reserve Bank of India a whopping 1.76 lakh crore rupees, a move many see as violation of the autonomy of the bank of banks.

As if this meltdown were not enough, India is toying with the idea of implementing the National Register of Citizens, which, if reports in the Indian media are anything to go by, will render lakhs of people stateless, including 1.4 lakh people of Nepali origin.

It's no secret that our economy – remember, we too are a sovereign country -- has deep links with the Indian economy, a link yours truly finds deeply uncomfortable. This means when the Indian rupee depreciates against the dollar, our economy suffers. When the Indian economy is in the doldrums, which happens very often, our country also bears the brunt. Amazingly, even when the Indian economy is booming, our economy remains on sickbed, putting question marks on the credibility of those figures, who never get tired of stressing the need to reap benefits from the prosperity of a neighbour, which, despite on the verge of becoming a global economic powerhouse, does not even allow the entry of a couple of truckloads of tea, ginger, cardamom, sugar and unprocessed medicinal herbs from Nepal on one pretext or the other, while pushing the government of Nepal to allow the entry of its farm products without any checks.

These crises are sure to cause a deep crisis in Nepal, which, as the seventh largest source of remittance for India, is providing jobs to lakhs of Indian nationals. Without having to pay anything, Indians have been enjoying gainful employment in our cities, townships and villages. They run shops, work as construction labourers, work in factories and industries, while lakhs of our youths take up dirty, difficult and dangerous jobs abroad. Does the government have any idea as to how these people are entering Nepal? Are some human traffickers involved in sending Indians into Nepal for money?

Above all, what is the government of Nepal doing to lessen the impact of the deep crises just across the border? There are indications that the prevailing China-US trade dispute and trade headwinds blowing in developed economies are also to blame for the economic crisis in India. What if this crisis spreads further, including in those countries where a large number of Nepalis are working?

In view of evolving grim scenarios, is our government stepping up security along the border anytime soon to prevent a sea of humanity from engulfing this country? Is it taking any serious steps to create job opportunities in the country itself? Is it doing anything to encourage the use of Nepali products and enhance the competencies of Nepali youths? Is it doing anything to protect its farm sector, industries and businesses, real estate and the hospitality industry, among others? Is it doing anything to encourage Nepali developers to develop hydropower and irrigation projects instead of letting companies from the neighbourhood keep these lofty projects on hold forever?

The country with a considerable demographic dividend has a Foreign Employment Promotion Board, set up obviously to send youths abroad and make the state survive on remittances! Should the government now establish a Domestic Employment Promotion Board to encourage Nepali nationals to live and work in Nepal instead of turning them into new-age Lahures?

Amid the economic slowdown, prestigious credit rating agencies like Moody's have cut India's GDP growth to 6.2 per cent from 6.8 per cent for the year 2019 and 6.7 per cent for 2020, a cut of another 06 per cent percentage points, amid cooling of the Chinese economy. 

Celebrated Indian journalists like Punya Prasun Bajpai are wondering if this slowdown has some semblance to the global economic slowdown of the 1930's that started in the US, spread around the world, including in Germany, led to the rise of the Third Reich and the Second World War. If it is indeed so, the slump will be far worse this time as economies are more interconnected now than in the 30's.

What will it mean for Nepal and how will it affect us? Will it make way for some epoch-making political changes yet again?

As the slump deepens right across the border and hitting the commoners the hardest, the government should get its act together and come up with a strategy to deal with repercussions at home instead of refusing to buzz from its signature wait and watch mode. The sooner it does so, the better for the regime that seems to be losing its popularity pretty fast in the wake of multiple scams like the Lalita Niwas land-grab, the wide-body scandal and the Nirmala Pant rape and murder case.  

Devendra Gautam