Reading into Indian elections

Devendra Gautam

A 45-day-long electoral process has come crashing down on India’s ruling Bharatiya Janata Party and brought the main opposition Indian National Congress back from the brink of its 240-year history, albeit feebly, thanks to generous support from the INDIA Alliance. 

The BJP itself has fallen short of a majority by securing 240 seats in the 543-member Lok Sabha, triggering calls from certain quarters for Prime MInister Narendra Modi’s resignation as the latter himself—or his ‘guarantee’—was the main agenda for this election. Nonetheless, the NDA bloc consisting of the BJP,  Chandrababu Naidu-led Telugu Desham Party (TDP) and the Nitish Kumar-led Janata Dal (United), among other partners, has clinched 295 seats in the Lok Sabha, offering some respite to the BJP as the NDA has crossed the halfway mark of 272 seats required for a majority in the lower chamber of the bicameral parliament at the Centre. Still, there’s no guarantee that the 16-seat-strong TDP and the 12-seat-strong JD(U) won’t seek to switch allegiance as more lucrative offers are likely to come their way from the INDIA bloc. 

NDA’s 295 seats in 2024 mark a considerable slide in popularity of the ruling alliance in comparison to 2019, when it secured 352 seats, with the BJP alone contributing to a whopping 303 seats compared to just 240 seats in 2024. 

This humbling of the BJP at the hands of the Indian electorate may be seen as a sign of a waning charisma and pan-India appeal of Narendra Modi, both as the prime minister and the BJP leader, particularly in the Hindi belt consisting of Bihar, Chandigarh, Chhattisgarh, Delhi, Haryana, Himachal Pradesh, Jharkhand, Madhya Pradesh Rajasthan, Uttarakhand and Uttar Pradesh, which, together, account for over 250 seats in the 543-member Lok Sabha. This is because BJP drew its strength almost solely from the ‘Vikas Purush’ and ‘Divya Purush’ this election season. 

It has now become clear that the BJP’s rallying cry ‘Ab Ki Baar, 400 Paar’—400 seats this time around—was meant to energize the party rank and file and boost their morale in the midst of an anti-incumbency setting.  

In all likelihood, the BJP will form the next government marking its third straight term in power, given the INC’s not-so-impressive 99 seats (a remarkable improvement compared to 52 seats in 2019) mean that it has ‘won’ the mandate to stay on in the opposition. 

PM Modi’s tweet after the election results indicates just that. He wrote: People have placed their faith in NDA, for a third consecutive time! This is a historical feat in India’s history. I bow to the Janata Janardan for this affection and assure them that we will continue the good work done in the last decade to keep fulfilling the aspirations of people. 

I also salute all our Karyakartas for their hard work. Words will never do justice to their exceptional efforts.   

Shocks, sobering lessons

During its election campaign, among other achievements like India’s rising global stature, its emergence as the fifth largest economy (size: $3,942 billion) and provisioning of free food grains to about 810.35 million people for five years, the BJP highlighted the construction and consecration of a Ram temple in Ayodhya, proclaiming that it had brought ‘Ram to his birthplace’ and kept a promise made to the people years ago. But a huge setback came at the very place as Lallu Singh, the BJP candidate in Faizabad, which is home to the temple, lost the party’s seat to Samajwadi Party candidate Awadhesh Prasad by a margin of 54,567 votes, thanks also to bonhomie with the INC.

Another shock came in Amethi, where Smriti Irani lost the BJP seat to INC’s Kishori Lal Sharma by a margin of over 1.6 lakh votes, in a full reversal of the 2019 BJP wave that saw Irani defeat Rahul Gandhi. 

What a smashing blow back then and what a smashing blow now!

PM Modi won the Varanasi seat yet again, defeating INC  candidate Ajay Rai by a margin of 152,000 votes, highlighting a remarkable slide in Modi’s appeal compared to 2019 when he won the same seat by 500,000 votes five years ago. 

This election was also kind to other BJP stalwarts like Union Home Minister Amit Shah, Minister for Defence Rajnath Singh and Union Minister Nitin Gadkari. 

Shah won the Gandhinagar seat in Gujarat, polling 10,10,972 votes against INC leader Sonal Patel’s 2,66,256 votes and marking his second consecutive win from the constituency. 

Rajnath Singh, Union Minister for Defence, won in his third electoral bid from Uttar Pradesh’s Lucknow constituency in the Lok Sabha election, edging his nearest rival Ravidas Mehrotra of the Samajwadi Party by 1,35,159 votes. 

In the Hindi belt, a huge setback came from India’s most populous state, Uttar Pradesh (UP). 

Turning the tide against the BJP that swept past two Lok Sabha elections in UP, which has 101 Lok Sabha seats, Samajwadi Party chief Akhilesh Yadav won from Kannauj, polling 6,42,292 votes against BJP candidate Subrata Pathak’s 4,71,370 votes, grossing 37 seats and emerging as the largest party in the state that has a crucial role in government formation in New Delhi. With INC’s six seats, INDIA’s final tally in the state reached 43 seats while the NDA bagged 36 berths with the BJP contributing a lion’s share of 36 seats. 

In another Hindi belt state of Bihar, Nitish Kumar’s JD(U) won 12 out of 40 seats. In West Bengal, Mamata Banerjee’s Trinamool Congress won 30 seats, marking a remarkable improvement in performance compared to 2019 elections when it could secure just 22 seats amid the BJP’s rise in the wake of identity politics. This time, the BJP was confined to a distant second position with 11 seats, followed by INC’s one seat. 

At a press briefing, Banerjee said  PM Modi should resign as he has lost credibility because his ‘iss bar 400 paar’ (more than 400 seats this time) slogan did not materialize.

What’s more important is Banerjee’s promise to try to ensure that Modi was out of power and the INDIA block was in. 

Ram and Kam

What caused the BJP’s poor showing in the 2014 elections? A slew of factors perhaps played a part. The ruling party built and consecrated a Ram temple at Ayodhya, winning hearts and minds of lakhs of Hindus, but did this turn into a big vote churner? Perhaps not because the lesser mortals spread across the ethnic-religional-regional divide had a slew of common concerns as well. They included the lack of jobs, deepening rural distress afflicting farmers, rising communal divide and alienation of sections of the national population. These people needed Ram but they needed Kam (jobs) also, which are indeed difficult to create in the world’s most populous country with a population of more than 1.4 billion and  a 640-million-strong electorate. The divisive politics at play during and well before the elections must have alienated a significant chunk of the religious minority that comprises around 14.2 percent of India’s population. 

A perceived or real design to amend the Constitution also played its part, perhaps. As some of the candidates sought a thumping victory (more than 400 seats) for the BJP to change the Charter, segments of the population consolidated against the party further fearing that the secular fabric of the Charter will be gone along with the provisions of reservation etc, if the BJP returns to power. 

A divided house

By the way, Nepal’s political leaders spent almost all of the 45 days quarreling with each other over trivial matters, holding the Parliament hostage and throwing cold water on the aspirations of the commoner.  

How will they deal with a rising India, with its new leadership at a time when this country is at her weakest and the Great Himalayan Game is at its peak? How will they address security and other ‘concerns’ of China? How will they deal with Europe? How will they deal with the United States and its concerns? 

If our good-for-nothings have no answer to these questions, they have no right whatsoever to remain in power by wasting our time and resources.