Nepal needs a strategy for survival

 

Is the period of Long Peace, marked by the absence of major wars between great powers since the end of World War II (1945), coming to an end? 

What do the latest developments in Venezuela, Syria, Iraq, Ukraine, Palestine, Iran, Greenland and our very own backyard—you see, having subcontinent-size countries as neighbours has its unique advantages—indicate?    

What factors/developments are giving rise to yet another crisis in a world where humans across generations have spent most of their times fighting or fleeing to save their dear lives along with that of their near and dear ones, with data suggesting that only eight percent of our recorded history—around 268 out of 3,400 years) has been truly peaceful? 

Now, let’s have a look at factors contributing to the Long Peace. They are: nuclear deterrence, economic interdependence through trade, the spread of democracy, the United Nations’ role, increased human rights/education, stable borders and shifting cultural norms that value life, bipolarity and capitalist peace.  

How about defining some of the key factors whose meanings are less obvious?   

Nuclear deterrence: The Carnegie Council for Ethics in International Affairs defines it as a principle in international relations where the retaliatory potential and destructive force of nuclear weapons prevents nations from launching a nuclear attack. However, there are questions as to

whether nuclear deterrence is sufficient, effective, just, or ethical.

Bipolarity: It is the global system with two nuclear-powered superpowers at the helm, like the United States and the then USSR during the Cold War (1945-89). While the US led the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation (NATO), the USSR led the Warsaw Pact, presiding over a tenuous peace the world over. With the disintegration of the USSR on December 26, 1991, the division of the world into two rival blocs ended, giving the US considerable leeway for the expansion of NATO into Russia’s neighbourhood with the inclusion of reunified Germany, Poland, Hungary, the Czech Republic, Bulgaria, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Romania, Slovakia, Slovenia, Albania, Croatia, Montenegro and North Macedonia from 1990 till 2020, stalling the plan to bring Ukraine onboard. 

Capitalist peace: This concept holds that free markets, trade and economic interdependence nurture peace between countries by increasing the costs of war, promoting mutual interests and incentivising cooperation over conflict, making capitalist countries less likely to fight each other. Key mechanisms for capitalist peace are the high opportunity cost of disrupting mutually profitable trade, trust built through contractual relations and reduced incentives for conquest when wealth comes from innovation and exchange, and not through the capture of territories.  

Meanwhile in the United States, which remains as the sole superpower presiding over a rules-based international order on the decline amid the rise of a multipolar world order, 45 individuals have served 47 presidencies spanning 60 four-year terms since April 30, 1789. 

On September 5, 2025, Donald J Trump, the 47^th president, signed an executive order changing the Department of Defense's name to the Department of War as a “secondary title”. 

The 200th presidential order of Trump authorizes Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth and DoD subordinate officials to use secondary titles like "Department of War," "Secretary of War" and "Deputy Secretary of War" in public communications, official correspondence, ceremonial contexts and non-statutory documents within the executive branch, according to a fact sheet from the White House.

Additionally, the order directs all executive agencies and departments to "recognize and accommodate these secondary titles in internal and external communications," as well as instructing Hegseth to recommend actions — including executive and legislative actions — that would be required to permanently rename the department.

Amid the rise of our giant neighbours along with Russia and their increasing presence in the immediate neighbourhood and much beyond, including in Latin America, Thucydides, considered the father of the school of political realism, seems to be proving from his grave the relevance of his ‘trap’ even in this day and age. 

Indeed, the Thucydides’ Trap refers to the natural, inevitable discombobulation that occurs when a rising power threatens to displace a ruling power and when a rising power threatens to displace a ruling power, the resulting structural stress makes a violent clash the rule, not the exception.

How will a fragile and strategically-located country, which almost collapsed within 48 hours of a youths-led protest, be able to defend herself and protect her core interests as powers worth their names fight viciously for dominance in her backyard and beyond?

Will weak and famished cats spread in the immediate neighbourhood and beyond be able to survive by standing together against their far mightier species on the prowl even as the peacemaker cat continues to mew from the banks of the Hudson, albeit feebly?

It’s time for national forces like the leaders of political parties making a beeline for talks at a foreign capital, the deposed monarch, government ministers, experts, bureaucrats and exceptionally competent generals of Bhadrakali, who know geopolitics like the back of their hands as their nuggets of wisdom spread through YouTube and other forums suggest, to come together and devise a strategy for survival.

 Devendra Gautam