A late post: A fire test ahead

 

Devendra Gautam

 

Between yesteryears’ reactionaries and yesterday’s new force with a chequered past, whom do we choose?

By the time this writeup sees the light of the day, if at all, counting of votes will already have begun for 165 seats under the direct election and 110 seats under the proportionate representation (PR) system for the House of Representatives, the 275-member lower chamber of the bicameral parliament at the Centre. Per news reports, voter turnout stands at around 60 percent despite a popular wave of support for a relatively new party that seems to enjoy widespread support of GenZ (youths aged 15 to 29 years), which constitutes 30-40 percent of the national population (roughly 29 million). This segment has emerged as a formidable force after the September 8-9, 2025 protest against corruption, nepotism and bad governance in the wake of a blanket social media ban that toppled an elected government and installed a government under a retired chief justice through a presidential decree after a brutal crackdown on dissent and razing of the three principal organs of the state, several sub-national and local public offices, private and public businesses to the ground throughout the country. 

 

In hindsight, hasn’t the decree effectively killed Article 132 (2) of the Constitution of Nepal? Let’s hope that the final interpreter of the charter will speak up one fine day.    

  

Moving on, let’s delve a bit into the mixed system of direct and PR voting that has clearly shown over the past 10 years that no party gets a resounding majority in the lower chamber, making way for unholy alliances among the three major political parties — the Nepali Congress, CPN-UML and the CPN (Maoist Centre) — and allowing them with impunity to indulge in nefarious practices like policy corruption, horse trading in the house, nepotism and favouritism to remain in power, earning a fortune for next elections and way beyond, at the cost of Nepal and successive generations of the Nepalis. 

Not much different is the situation in seven provincial assemblies (PAs) under Nepal’s federal secular democratic republican polity, institutionalized by a constitution promulgated in 2015 through a Constituent Assembly after its second election, a rarity in itself. By and large, the PAs have become havens providing hefty pay and perks to the near and dear ones of principal political parties. 

Since the PAs do not come under the scope of this piece, let’s focus only on the national vote pushed two years ahead of schedule following the toppling of an elected government comprising the two largest parties in the parliament – the Nepali Congress and the CPN-UML – in the wake of the GenZ protest. Two largest parties in the parliament choosing to join forces for forming a government instead of the largest one forming the government and the second largest helming the opposition bench points is unheard of in any parliamentary democracy worth its name. What does it point at if not the absolute rigging of the polity at the topmost level? 

 

Now, the basics of the March 5 vote. Nearly 19 million voters, including eight lakh first-timers, registered for the vote, marking a rise of nearly one million voters since the last parliamentary polls in November 2022, thanks in part to greater interest in politics post the September 8-9 GenZ protest. Of the total registered voters, 9.66 million were men and 9.24 million women, with 52 percent aged 18-40 years (youths) and 30-40 percent are GenZ (aged 14-29 years). 

A total of 6,541 candidates contested — 3,406 under the first-past-the-post (direct) and 3,135 under the proportional representation system.

Under the FPTP, 65 parties fielded 2,263 candidates for 165 seats, and 1,143 ran as independents. Of the total candidates contesting direct elections, 3,017 were male and 388 female comprising a paltry 11.39 percent of total candidates under the FPTP system. Only one candidate was from the sexual and gender minority community.

Altogether 160 GenZ candidates were in the fray, including 15 women candidates, in a country of roughly 29 million people, of which 51.02 percent are female and 48.98 percent male. 

A total of 341,113 security personnel, including 149,000 temporary election police personnel, mobilized in and around 23,112 polling centres set up for the impromptu vote across the length and breadth of the country. 

The above-mentioned datapoints are also meant to drive the point home that the early vote comes with bills attached and the taxpayer will have to foot the bill, directly or indirectly, no matter which party wins the most seats. 

 

A look into 75 years of democratic/autocratic shows that political forces at the forefront of a political movement win elections held right after such a change, only to get neck-deep in corruption, thanks mainly to an electorate that thinks its duties end after casting votes. Going by this trend, it will be no surprise if the relatively new force riding the popular wave under its poster boy following the GenZ movement emerges as the largest party through the March 5 vote.

 

Even if it does, will it be in a position to make a critical difference in our lives?

Will it have the courage to probe the September 8-9 protest in a free, fair and credible manner, and bring the guilty to justice? 

Market prices soar right after elections in Nepal, will it be any different this time? 

Will the new force be able to probe corruption scandals, policy corruption scandals in particular, that have been bleeding the country dry for decades, and bring the guilty to justice? Will it seek to amend several controversial deals that have taken a huge toll on national sovereignty?

How will it be able to curb the brain and muscle drain that has been bleeding the country white? How will it be able to protect our core national interests in this day and age of geopolitical and geostrategic push and pull?

If the new force emerges as the largest party, a nation struggling for a new dawn for about eight decades will greet it with these and several other sharp questions. 

Honeymoon can wait, these questions can’t. 

Here’s wishing it all the very best ahead of a possible Agniparikshya (the fire test).

PS: This piece was written well before the results of the March 5 vote came out.